The demand and supply pressure of the domestic PVC market has increased sharply, the high level of construction superimposes high inventory, and the market supply pressure is obvious; On the demand side, however, due to the slow recovery of production after the festival and stock before the festival, the social bank continued to increase. The export end began to exert force after the festival, the trading volume soared, and the volume and price rose. The reasons are as follows: First, the price of Formosa Plastics increased by $30 / ton, driving the intention to buy up; Second, China's low price to attract foreign investors; Enquiries increase after the Chinese New Year. Under the bearish trend of the expected release of registered warehouse receipts in March and the digestion of large inventories, PVC exports use its volume and price advantages to support the market.

Supply: Upstream and market inventory expected express increase
The loss of PVC production enterprises is expected to decrease slightly, mainly due to the impact of Sichuan Jinlu, Shanxi Ruiheng and other construction, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be about 80.92%. At the end of February, domestic PVC production enterprises have fewer maintenance plans, after March, ethylene law enterprises took the lead in opening maintenance, and in April to May, the supply side will gradually fall back.

Cost: There is support at the bottom of the industry, and the short-term space below is limited
In the short term, the loss of LAN carbon enterprises will continue, the supply will narrow slightly, the demand side is not expected to increase, and the price is still weak; With the recovery of road transport next week, the arrival of calcium carbide has improved, the inventory of production enterprises has declined, and the price of calcium carbide has bottomed out. Chlor-alkali liquid alkali point of view, the main producing areas of high concentration of goods better support prices, short-term can see stability, later will face falling; Alkali tablet market trading is positive, manufacturers weekly new single prices are expected to continue to rise next week. However, due to the low level of liquid chlorine, the superimposed PVC cost is expected to rise, and the overall industry profit is still not optimistic.

Demand: Gradually digest inventory after the downstream resumption of production, and the export end is still good

Most of the domestic downstream from the beginning of the festival have a certain inventory of raw materials, so the demand is expected to start slowly, but with the gradual increase in the later period, the domestic large inventory is expected to gradually digest. From the point of view of export, the main demand area still has certain expectations, from the cost side, there is still China's export advantage, so the quantity can still be expected. Internal and external demand differentiation, domestic demand will increase with the recovery of downstream, but it is affected by the price. External demand is expected to weaken after a significant boost this week, and the volume is expected to be near 30,000 tons.

In the short term, the return of the Spring Festival holiday, domestic demand can not achieve a good drive, and from the supply side is still high output. From the downstream procurement rhythm, the possibility of rapid increase in demand is not big, but the export gives the market a clear impetus, superimposed external factors are good, it is expected that the mainstream 5 type powder in East China is expected to run at 5650-5750 yuan/ton.
In the medium and long term, at present, more attention comes from the impact of the cancellation of the warehouse receipt on the market in March, with the current registered node, it is expected that 200,000 tons of goods will flow into the market to digest. But then comes the spring inspection of PVC enterprises, so the market's expectations after April are better than in March. It is expected that the long-term inventory will be gradually digested with the spring inspection, and the PVC market basis is expected to be gradually repaired, and the price will rebound after falling.